The Green Mile takes a toll on the field at the 107th PGA Championship Friday afternoon. The cutline at Quail Hollow moved all afternoon between 1- and 2-over par. Ultimately, the top 70 and ties were cut at 143, and 74 players moved onto the weekend. The top three golfers in the world were even tested by Quail’s close finishing just after 7:00 pm ET. Only one, Scottie Scheffler (+220), of that PM pairing sits inside the top 10. Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele battled the cutline all afternoon and just managed to join the weekend warriors.
Scheffler is not just the No. 1 player in the world, but also the betting favorite on the outright odds board. Surrounded by a mighty middle-tier leaderboard, Scottie sits poised to take home the Wannamaker Trophy. Can anyone challenge him?
We began the week featuring the big three of Scottie, Rory, and Bryson DeChambeau (+875). DeChambeau’s 68 on Friday morning also placed him in contention (T17). Both he and Scottie are just a few strokes behind our 36-hole leader, Jonattan Vegas. Vegas looked great this morning, extending his lead for 17 holes. A double bogey on 18, and Jhonny may have started to run out of luck. With a wild leaderboard in Charlotte, how am I handling the outright (winner) market?
You don’t have to make a move on Scheffler yet. Scottie’s current odds are approximately half of what they were to start the week (+400). Scheffler did look shaky today, hitting only six of 14 fairways. Scottie may start slow tomorrow, and then that number drifts a little. The setup for rounds one and two is designed to get the full field around the course. Neither scorecard stretched over 7,600 yards. Guess what, the gloves are off for the weekend as the field is cut down and we can play in twosomes. I expect Kerry Haigh’s Championship Team to deliver a volatile moving day.
Should Scheffler return to his original value and get back to where he was pre-Thursday, or a little above, that’s when you take him with a live bet. I invested in Bryson before the tournament started. If you did not, I recommend you get in. At +875, DeChambeau is the second-best player in the top 20 and has an extreme advantage on this course. Much like McIlroy, Bryson’s length and putting acumen make him a perfect fit for this magnificent layout.
Where do we go from here? Dynamic approach, play, and precise putting have produced this leaderboard. Putting has been pivotal, as five players in the top 8 are ranked inside the top 20 for strokes gained on the greens. Two players I’m watching as outrights for the final 36-holes are converting putts and gaining significant strokes tee to green (T2G). The first is Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400). In his post-round interview, “I have seen myself do this before.” That’s a powerful point of view, and the numbers back up his intentions. The 2022 US Open Champion has made 173’ of putts in two rounds.
My last outright play following Friday’s finish is Max Homa (+1800). Homa earned his first win on the PGA TOUR at Quail Hollow in 2019. In his last two starts in Charlotte, Max has managed to finish eighth both times. Struggles aside, Homa has a home at this championship course. That level of comfort should fuel his flatstick for a Saturday move.
Twenty-six players sit within five strokes of the lead. Two of which are Scottie and Bryson. I’d love to take some longer shots, but Jon Rahm (+3000) and Rory McIlroy (+3000) have too many players in between them and the top. Round 3 tee times begin tomorrow morning at 8:15 a.m. with our final pairing starting at 2:45 p.m.. Enjoy all the action.
*- ESPNBet odds on 5/16/25
