Saturday at the 107th PGA Championship started with a weather delay and ended with a Scheffler storm. Scottie Scheffler played the final five holes in round three five under par! We still have 18 holes to play at Quail Hollow, but from a betting perspective, the outright market is essentially over. Scottie began the day as a +220 favorite. His six under par day was the low round on Saturday and positions him as a -500 favorite going into Sunday.
If you were to place $100 on Scheffler and he wins, you will receive $120. Your original $100 and $20 for winning the bet. Sure, some people love a sure thing, but that’s far too much of an investment for such a small return. Scheffler’s closest competitor is Alex Noren (+2000). Three strokes back, Noren is a 10-time winner on the DP World Tour yet has never won on the PGA TOUR. The next two pursuers, Jon Rahm (+2200) and Bryson DeChambeau (+2800), sit five and six shots back, respectively. Thirty-seven of the last 40 PGA Championship winners have been within four shots of the lead going into the final round. The trend is not our friend.
WATCH: Highlights from Scottie Scheffler's Third Round
If betting the outright market doesn’t make sense, where else can we invest on Sunday? This is why weekend wagers can be so much fun. If Scottie separates even more from the field, we will have other action to keep our attention. Here are two bets I’m recommending for round four.
When the betting favorite takes command of a tournament, creative books like ESPN Bet offer a “winner without” market. Simply put, we are trying to pick second place or the winner without Scheffler in the field. As you look at the leaderboard, one name stands out: Bryson DeChambeau. In his last four PGA Championship starts, Bryson has three top-four finishes. Of all the players at the top of the board, I believe DeChambeau will finish runner-up. I’m backing Bryson based on course fit and his recent success in the last five majors. Since the 2024 Masters, DeChambreau has four top 6 results, including a US Open win. And at +600, we get a little more value than taking Jon Rahm in the same market.
My second Sunday bet features Keegan Bradley. The Ryder Cup Captain made a run up the leaderboard Saturday with a three under par 68. Bradley was one of 15 players who shot sub-70 in round three. Keegan is having a great ball-striking season, but the putter hasn’t helped him reach his full potential. Bradley’s ranked second for strokes gained tee to green after three days, and for the first time in five tournaments, the putter is positive over the field. Take Keegan Bradley (+350) to finish in the top 5. Bradley sits eighth and is one of four (including Scottie) major champions in the top 12 after 54 holes.
WATCH: Bryson DeChambeau Discusses the End of Round 3
I cannot wait to watch tomorrow’s action at Quail Hollow. The chasers will come out, and Scheffler will most likely separate. And that’s fine with me, because with these two alternative bets, Scottie won’t be the only winner on Sunday at the PGA Championship.
*- ESPNBet odds on 5/17/25
