CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – “Hey Pro, who’s going to win this week?” The most common question asked of PGA Professionals in golf shops from Quail Hollow to Honolulu and everywhere in between this week. The 107th PGA Championship starts Thursday morning, and a field of 156 will attack all 7,626 yards of this Carolina masterpiece just as they did in 2017 — the last time the PGA of America hosted its championship in Charlotte. Unlike 2017, a big part of the conversation this week amongst all fans is not just who will win, but what their odds are as well.
So, who is going to win? Bryson DeChambeau (+800) is my favorite near the top of the odds board. I know Rory McIlroy (+475) has won here four times and is the current Masters champion, but Bryson is a better bet this week. Both players are longer than Scottie Scheffler (+450) off the tee, and each has far more experience than Scheffler at Quail Hollow. World No. 1 Scheffler’s only professional experience at the host venue was during the 2022 Presidents Cup. A team match that Scottie finished with a 0-3-1 record. DeChambeau has a fourth and a ninth in his last two starts at Quail Hollow and three top 4 results in his last four PGA Championships.
Rory McIlroy in motion and mindset.#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/nIrWPWsWdN
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 14, 2025
If you read my course preview, then you know Quail Hollow favors a long draw off the tee and great putters. Bryson checks both boxes. Most golf bettors love long shots. The four-day lottery starts on Thursday and pays every Sunday evening. Long odds win tour events every week. My outright lean (pick) with longer odds is Viktor Hovland (+5000). In his last two PGA Championships, Hovland finished runner-up at Oak Hill in 2023 and third at Valhalla in 2024.
Kerry Haigh and the PGA of America Championship team love to test three things: ball speed, long iron acumen, and scoring ability. Viktor checks all three boxes. Need a little more convincing? Hovland won two months ago in Tampa at the Valspar Championship. We know he’s capable of beating the field, but one detail that catches my attention is how he did it at Innisbrook. The Valspar requires great long iron play, steady driving, and sensational putting on Poa Trivialis overseeded greens — the same agronomy we will see this week in Charlotte.
Predicting winners is very hard, believe me, I build betting cards every week. Even though I have predicted 39 outright winners in three years covering golf betting, I still diversify my overall betting card (list) each week. I love a good proposition (or prop) bet. Two prop bets I am recommending for the PGA are Rory McIlroy (+200) to finish in the top 10 for Round 1. This one’s self-explanatory, and if McIlroy wants to record win number five at QHC, he better get off to a fast start in these soft conditions.
My second side bet involves Justin Thomas (+200). Son of PGA Member Mike Thomas, JT is the 2017 PGA Champion, contested at Quail Hollow. Thomas has been terrific in 2025, winning the RBC Heritage and finishing runner-up last week in Philadelphia. Justin has six top 10s in 11 starts this season and five more top 10s in the PGA Championship for his career. Not many are better on approach than Thomas, and that’s the main reason why I am taking him with 10 places.
Win, place, and show… or showdown. We all love the Ryder Cup because of the head-to-head matchups. You can play H2Hs every week on tour with ESPN Bet. I like the 72-hole matchups. I’m taking Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler (-110). Familiarity is a huge advantage, and Rory’s confidence will be palpable on this property. Scottie may be the number one ranked player in the world, but Rory has been the most complete player in 2025.
*- ESPNBet odds on 5/14/25
