CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA – Let me guess, you need to pick the winner of the 107th PGA Championship. Pressed for time, you take a quick peek at the final leaderboard for the 2017 PGA Championship. We all know it was played at the Quail Hollow Club, this week’s host.
Stop right there.
Not all PGA Championship venues are designed equally. As it turns out, even the same venue can change dramatically based on conditions and time.
The Quail Hollow Club hosted the 99th PGA Championship in 2017. A young star, and son of a PGA Professional, Justin Thomas, took home the Wannamaker Trophy that week. A glance at the leaderboard and even a casual golf fan can detect a theme from 2017: short game.
Kevin Kisner was the 54-hole leader, and Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, and Matt Kuchar finished inside the top 10 that week. Including Thomas, five fantastic around-the-green aficionados.
Fast forward to 2025, and of the four major strokes gained categories, I would place short game at the bottom. Why the change? Let’s take a deeper look at the course and the specific skills each player will need to compete, contend, and ultimately win the 107th PGA Championship.
Leading into the 2017 PGA Championship, Quail Hollow went through an extensive golf course renovation. Newly constructed greens were met with arid conditions in August, and the turf played very firm and fast. Balls were bouncing all over the place, and the final results left just 12 players under par.
Monday views at Quail Hollow 📸#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/vdS8jxikal
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 12, 2025
Conditions for the Championship will be much softer this year. We have seen epic amounts of rain fall, and the surfaces are going to be far more receptive. It’s also worth mentioning that the latest “Quail Hollow Update” took place over one year ago. Greens will perform like dartboards rather than trampolines. The leaders will be able to hit it close and convert scoring chances. The opposite of what we saw in 2017. Long iron acumen is a separating skill on the PGA TOUR (and will be this week). Just ask Scottie Scheffler (+450), arguably golf’s most consistent iron player and PGA Championship betting favorite. Over 50% of the approach shots into greens will be from 200 yards or more.
Getting closer to the greens is a major priority for the field. Our next priority is ball speed.
Longer players will have a considerable advantage coming into Championship week, even before the rain. Wet conditions have only amplified that advantage considerably. Second on the odds board, Rory McIlroy (+475), has competed at Quail Hollow 13 times. McIlroy is 102-under par for his career, 55 strokes better than second place on that list. Rory’s four victories prove that driving the golf ball matters around this routing. The PGA Championship scorecard measures 7,626 yards and will play to a par 71. The further you can carry it off the tee, the closer you will be to these hole locations.
Carry distance and ball speed were almost a detriment in 2017. Longer players could not control their roll-out and ended up in difficult lies. The Bermudagrass rough gave the guys fits and caused tons of guessing. The 2025 PGA Championship is only the second completely overseeded major championship venue. Players will see Ryegrass in the rough and putt on Poa Trivialis. The Bermudagrass is mainly dormant this time of year. A common adjustment to playing conditions during cooler months, the enhancement to the agronomy leads us to my final course-contending player characteristic.
Our PGA Champion on Sunday will be a great putter. Not just this week, but a consistent professional player on the greens. Quail Hollow Club rewards rolling the rock like no other championship venue. A common comparison is made to Augusta National Golf Club. Your Master’s winner(s) earn their green jacket almost entirely tee to green. Nearly 95% of the strokes gained by the Masters winner are found outside the flatstick performance. Shift that same analysis to Quail Hollow, and the winner’s strokes gained split is closer to 60% tee to green and 40% putting.
Bryson Dechambeau (+850) has gained an average of one stroke per round, putting over four starts at Quail Hollow. Considering the challenge of these greens, that’s very good. We know Bryson has ball speed, so combined with his flatstick skill, one can easily understand why he’s one of the favorites alongside Scheffler and McIlroy. There are 153 more players in the field. If they plan to compete with these three, they better follow the 2025 blueprint, and you should too when picking your pool, fantasy, and outright winners.
*- ESPNBet odds on 5/12/25
